The U.S. Air Force needs to address its dwindling number of fighter pilots if it wants to remain combat ready, according to a recent report by a Washington aerospace think tank.
A Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies report released this month examining the service’s “pilot crisis” recommends the Air Force grow and train its active component combat air forces, retain experienced pilots in the Air Force reserve component — such as the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve — and increase the production of fighter aircraft to bolster its battle capabilities.
The think tank warned of a potential future in which the service is unable to meet the demands of warfare due to pilot shortages and airmen’s inability to effectively engage in aerial combat.
“Experienced pilots have better survivability rates and mission outcomes in combat and confer those benefits to their less experienced wingmen,” the report said. “The Air Force’s combat pilot experience levels continue to drop as the service suffers from ongoing budget-driven force cuts and reduces opportunities that are essential to pilot career progression.”
One source of the pitfall is the overall divesting of the service’s infrastructure and force structure, the report said.
In 2024, the service fell short of its airmen goal by nearly 1,850 pilots. Of those positions that needed to be filled, 1,142 were fighter pilot billets.
Currently, the number of pilot retirements outnumber the number of recruits, according to the report.
However, these manpower struggles aren’t new for the Air Force.
The service has encountered difficulty fulfilling pilot positions over the last few years for a myriad of reasons, including military flight instructor shortages and a reduced fleet, Air Force Times previously reported.
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The institute also called for an increase in the production rate of fighter aircraft, such as the F-35A and F-15EX, as an influx of jets means more training opportunities for fighter pilots.
“The U.S. Air Force’s combat aircraft inventory is the smallest that it has ever been in its history,” the report said.
In 2024, there were roughly 160 bombers and over 2,000 fighter aircraft in the fleet. By comparison, the report states, there were 422 bombers and over 4,000 fighter aircraft during the Cold War. The report attributed the decline to infrastructure divestment.
The service’s fleet is also aging, as each aircraft’s age averages between 30 and 50 years old, with many lacking the attributes and capabilities necessary for peer-level conflicts, according to the report.
Further, collaborative combat aircraft, or unmanned aerial vehicles that utilize artificial intelligence, have raised questions about what the future of aerial combat will look like, as well as what shifts in technology and resources are necessary to accomplish evolving war fighting goals. But the report argues autonomous capabilities are unproven and cannot replace human fighter pilots in combat situations, even casting doubt on AI’s decision-making abilities.
“Despite advances in artificial intelligence, autonomy will continue to have limitations and vulnerabilities that humans do not share — namely, the ability to decide and operate appropriately when presented with novel, unexpected, surprising, or ambiguous data,” the report said.
Riley Ceder is a reporter at Military Times, where he covers breaking news, criminal justice, investigations, and cyber. He previously worked as an investigative practicum student at The Washington Post, where he contributed to the Abused by the Badge investigation.
